January 26, 2011
This morning, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021. The annual report includes new baseline projections and budget assumptions for FY 2011 through FY 2021. CBO’s report paints a picture that is more dangerous than most Americans could anticipate. The next fiscal decade will almost certainly be our worst, with debt held by the public nearly doubling in size. The following is broad overview of some of the top-line estimates and projections included in CBO’s report.
Record Breaking Deficits:
- The FY 2011 deficit will reach an all time record high of $1.48 trillion.
- The FY 2011 deficit will be $186 billion or 14.3 percent above last year’s $1.294 trillion deficit.
- The FY 2011 deficit will be $63 billion or 4.4 percent above the highest deficit on record, $1.417 trillion in FY 2009.
- The FY 2011 deficit will be 9.8% of GDP, up from 8.9 percent of GDP in FY 2010.
- Each U.S. household’s share of the FY 2011 deficit will be $12,886.
- Over 10 years (FY 2012 - FY 2021), deficits will total $6.971 trillion. In August, CBO estimated that deficits over 10 years would total $6.246 trillion. In just five months, the projection increased by $725 billion or 12 percent.
- The average annual deficit between FY 2011 and FY 2021 will be $768.4 billion or $6,688 per U.S. household.
- The lowest annual deficit in any given fiscal year will be $551 billion in FY 2015.
- After bottoming out in FY 2015, annual deficits will then increase to $768 billion by FY 2021.
- Spending in FY 2011 will reach an all time high of $3.708 trillion.
- Each U.S. household’s share of FY 2011 spending will be $32,292.
- Spending in FY 2011 will be $252 billion or 7.3 percent higher than last year’s $3.456 trillion total.
- Spending in FY 2011 will be $187 billion or 5.3 percent higher than the record set in FY 2009.
- Spending in FY 2011 will consume 24.7 percent of GDP, up from 23.8 percent in FY 2010.
- Over ten years (FY2012 – FY2021), spending will total $46.055 trillion as compared $39.084 trillion in revenues over the same period.
- Over ten years, annual government spending will consume an average of 23.5 percent of GDP, 3.5 percent higher than the post-World War II average.
- Annual spending will average $4.524 trillion between FY 2011 and FY 2021.
- By 2021, the gross national debt—which includes inter-governmental accounts—is estimated to reach $25.046 trillion, a ten year increase of $10.978 trillion or 78 percent.
- By 2021, the gross national debt will be 105 percent of national GDP.
- Debt held by the public is estimated to reach $18.253 trillion by 2021, a ten year increase of $8.838 trillion or 94 percent.
- By 2021, public debt will increase as a share of GDP from 63 percent to 77 percent.
- In FY 2011, interest payments on the debt alone will total $225 billion or 15 percent of the annual deficit.
For additional information, contact:
The House Republican Conference Policy Office